Indicator
Infant mortality
Deaths of children under 1 year per thousand live births, estimated with correction for underregistration (IBGE, Population Projections, 2024 Revision).
- Unit
- per thousand live births
- Population
- Live births
- Territory
- Brazil
- Frequency
- Annual
- Desirable direction
- Lower is better
Comparisons
The start and end points always come from the same series. The rule for choosing the years is given next to each comparison.
- 2002 → 2010: 24.8 → 15.0 per thousand live births (-39.7%).
Series: IBGE, Population Projections, 2024 Revision. Rule: Last year before the first term (2002) and last full year of the second (2010), in the same series. Years from 2023 onward are projections and are not included in comparisons.
IBGE, Population Projections, 2024 Revision
Demographic estimate (component method): SIM deaths 1999 to 2023 with coverage adjustment (logistic curve by sex and age group, including age 0); deaths of children under 1 year counted by birth cohort (year of analysis plus the following year); denominator = live births estimated with correction for underregistration/underreporting. 2000 to 2022 = estimation period; 2023 to 2070 = projections (2023 uses preliminary registry data; see notes).
Methodology sheet (from the cited documentation; no metadata available through an API)
- Variable
- TMI_T (infant mortality rate, both sexes)
- Unit in the source
- per thousand live births
- Territory
- Brazil
- Population
- Live births (estimated in the fertility chapter)
- Frequency in the source
- annual
- Annual value
- Annual value of the revision; 2000 to 2022 estimate, 2023 onward projection
- Values
- rate
- Seasonal adjustment
- not applicable
- Revisions
- Each revision of the Projections rewrites the series (2022: 10.88 in the 2018 revision; 12.42 in the 2024 revision).
- Metadata
- official lookup (checked on 2026-10-14)
Table with all values (25 periods)
| Period | Value | Status | Term in office that year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 28.1 | revised | other government |
| 2001 | 26.2 | revised | other government |
| 2002 | 24.8 | revised | other government |
| 2003 | 23.9 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2004 | 22.1 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2005 | 20.7 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2006 | 19.1 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2007 | 17.9 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2008 | 17.0 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2009 | 16.2 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2010 | 15.0 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2011 | 14.8 | revised | other government |
| 2012 | 14.3 | revised | other government |
| 2013 | 14.0 | revised | other government |
| 2014 | 13.5 | revised | other government |
| 2015 | 12.7 | revised | other government |
| 2016 | 12.3 | revised | other government |
| 2017 | 12.7 | revised | other government |
| 2018 | 12.5 | revised | other government |
| 2019 | 12.1 | revised | other government |
| 2020 | 11.4 | revised | other government |
| 2021 | 12.2 | revised | other government |
| 2022 | 12.4 | revised | other government |
| 2023 | 12.5 | preliminary | Lula 3 |
| 2024 | 12.2 | preliminary | Lula 3 |
Download CSV · Original query (aba '4) INDICADORES'; coluna AA = TMI_T (ambos os sexos); filtro LOCAL = 'Brasil' (CÓD. 0, SIGLA BR); linhas 8 (2000) a 32 (2024))
UN IGME (via World Bank)
Statistical model of the UN IGME that reconciles all available sources (vital registration, censuses, surveys) and fits a trend line by country; standardized for comparison across countries. Published with 1 decimal place. Revised in each UN IGME round (the whole series may change).
Methodology sheet (from the cited documentation; no metadata available through an API)
- Variable
- SP.DYN.IMRT.IN (UN IGME)
- Unit in the source
- per thousand live births
- Territory
- Brazil
- Population
- Live births
- Frequency in the source
- annual
- Annual value
- Annual estimate from the UN IGME model
- Values
- rate
- Seasonal adjustment
- not applicable
- Revisions
- Statistical model revised in each round; smooths the trend for international comparison.
- Metadata
- official lookup (checked on 2026-10-14)
Table with all values (25 periods)
| Period | Value | Status | Term in office that year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 29.1 | revised | other government |
| 2001 | 27.3 | revised | other government |
| 2002 | 25.6 | revised | other government |
| 2003 | 24.0 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2004 | 22.4 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2005 | 21.0 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2006 | 19.7 | revised | Lula 1 |
| 2007 | 18.6 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2008 | 17.6 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2009 | 16.7 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2010 | 16.0 | revised | Lula 2 |
| 2011 | 15.3 | revised | other government |
| 2012 | 14.8 | revised | other government |
| 2013 | 14.4 | revised | other government |
| 2014 | 14.0 | revised | other government |
| 2015 | 13.7 | revised | other government |
| 2016 | 14.6 | revised | other government |
| 2017 | 13.3 | revised | other government |
| 2018 | 13.1 | revised | other government |
| 2019 | 12.9 | revised | other government |
| 2020 | 12.8 | revised | other government |
| 2021 | 12.7 | revised | other government |
| 2022 | 12.6 | revised | other government |
| 2023 | 12.4 | revised | Lula 3 |
| 2024 | 12.3 | revised | Lula 3 |
Series breaks
ibge-projecoes-2024 × unigme-banco-mundial: IBGE demographic estimate and UN IGME statistical model for international comparison: they are not mixed.
The World Bank indicator SP.DYN.IMRT.IN has as its source the UN IGME, which uses statistical models to obtain a best-estimate trend line for each country.[10]
Context and interpretation
In the 2024 Revision of the Population Projections, IBGE calls the period from 2000 to 2022 estimates and the period from 2023 to 2070 projections.[1]
IBGE defines estimates as data for the past period, which has already occurred, and projections as the future period, for which hypotheses are drawn up.[2]
The starting point of the projections is 2022, but IBGE used preliminary data from the 2023 records for births and deaths.[3]
The deaths used in the 2024 Revision are the SIM records, from the Ministry of Health, from 1999 to 2023, with preliminary information for 2023.[4]
For the infant mortality rate, IBGE used in the denominator the data on live births, from the methodology described in the fertility section.[5]
For the 0-year group, IBGE counted the deaths of the birth cohort (deaths of children under 1 year in the year of analysis and in the following year), and not the deaths at age 0 that occurred in the year of analysis.[6]
IBGE estimated the annual coverage of death records, by sex and age group (including age 0), by fitting a logistic model to coverage studies; in the most recent years coverage is close to completeness.[7]
The parameters of the death coverage curve were: SIM coverage estimated for 2000, coverage from the Active Search methodology from 2004 to 2012, and coverage from the Capture and Recapture Method from 2015 to 2022.[8]
The projection of life expectancy at birth was a logistic fit based on two points: the estimate for 2023 and the value of the limit life table, allocated to 2100.[9]
According to the UN IGME series at the World Bank (SP.DYN.IMRT.IN), Brazil's infant mortality was 25.6 in 2002, 16 in 2010, 12.6 in 2022, and 12.3 in 2024, per thousand live births.[11]
According to the TabNet notes for the SIM and SINASC, final data are available through 2024; the 2025 data are preliminary.[12]
In the IDB 2012 (RIPSA/MS), the infant mortality rate (deaths of children under 1 year per 1,000 live births) was estimated with SIM and SINASC data corrected by factors from the Active Search Survey.[13]
What remains to be documented
- Methodology: The 2024 Revision values exist only in a spreadsheet, a format that automatic verification cannot read.
- Observed results: The 2022 SIM and SINASC counts have no static document that can be verified.
Sources and evidence
Excerpts are quoted in the original language of the source.
1. In the 2024 Revision of the Population Projections, IBGE calls the period from 2000 to 2022 estimates and the period from 2023 to 2070 projections.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 11 (PDF p. 13), section "Demographic Components Method". Accessed October 13, 2026.“calculadas para o período de 2000 a 2022 (período das estimativas) e de 2023 a 2070”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 11 (PDF p. 13), following line. Accessed October 13, 2026.“(período das projeções) utilizando-se o Método das Componentes Demográficas.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
2. IBGE defines estimates as data for the past period, which has already occurred, and projections as the future period, for which hypotheses are drawn up.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 11 (PDF p. 13), footnote 2. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Como estimativas nos referimos aos dados estimados para o período passado, já ocorrido. Como projeções nos referimos ao período a futuro, ou seja, período para o qual são traçadas hipóteses”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
3. The starting point of the projections is 2022, but IBGE used preliminary data from the 2023 records for births and deaths.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 31 (PDF p. 33), chapter Fertility, "Basic Data". Accessed October 13, 2026.“Embora o ponto de partida para as projeções seja o ano de 2022, para os nascimentos (e também para os óbitos) dados preliminares dos registros para o ano de 2023 foram utilizados.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
4. The deaths used in the 2024 Revision are the SIM records, from the Ministry of Health, from 1999 to 2023, with preliminary information for 2023.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 22 (PDF p. 24), chapter Mortality, "Basic data". Accessed October 13, 2026.“Os dados de óbitos utilizados foram os registros de óbitos provenientes do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM)3, de 1999 a 20234, disponibilizadas pelo Ministério da Saúde.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: PDF p. 24 (printed p. 22), footnote 4. Accessed October 14, 2026.“Informações preliminares para 2023 disponíveis em:”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
5. For the infant mortality rate, IBGE used in the denominator the data on live births, from the methodology described in the fertility section.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 23 (PDF p. 25), top of the page. Accessed October 13, 2026.“utilizados, no denominador, os dados de nascidos vivos, provenientes da metodologia descrita na seção de fecundidade, para estimar a taxa de mortalidade infantil.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
6. For the 0-year group, IBGE counted the deaths of the birth cohort (deaths of children under 1 year in the year of analysis and in the following year), and not the deaths at age 0 that occurred in the year of analysis.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 23 (PDF p. 25), chapter Mortality. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Para o grupo etário de 0 ano de idade foram considerados os registros de óbitos da coorte de nascimento, e, não, os óbitos de 0 ano ocorridas no ano de análise.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 23 (PDF p. 25), next sentence. Accessed October 13, 2026.“ano corrente de análise e no ano seguinte, completando os óbitos da coorte de crianças de 0 ano nascida no ano de análise.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
7. IBGE estimated the annual coverage of death records, by sex and age group (including age 0), by fitting a logistic model to coverage studies; in the most recent years coverage is close to completeness.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 25 (PDF p. 27), section "Adjustment of death registration coverage". Accessed October 13, 2026.“A estimativa anual da cobertura de óbitos para o Brasil e Unidades da Federação, por sexo e grupos etários (0 ano de idade, 1 a 4 anos e 5 anos ou mais) foi elaborada ajustando-se um modelo logístico aos pontos observados nos estudos citados acima.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 25 (PDF p. 27), end of the section. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Nos anos mais recentes, nos três grupos etários analisados e para ambos os sexos, a cobertura dos registros está bem próxima da completude total.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
8. The parameters of the death coverage curve were: SIM coverage estimated for 2000, coverage from the Active Search methodology from 2004 to 2012, and coverage from the Capture and Recapture Method from 2015 to 2022.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 25 (PDF p. 27), list of parameters. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Cobertura ajustada para dados do SIM/MS, tendo como base a cobertura estimada no ano 2000 (Albuquerque; Senna, 2005);”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 25 (PDF p. 27), list of parameters. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Cobertura de informação de óbitos que utiliza metodologia do Busca Ativa, dos anos de 2004 a 2012;”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 25 (PDF p. 27), list of parameters. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Cobertura estimada pelo Método de Captura e Recaptura, dos anos de 2015 a 2022.”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
9. The projection of life expectancy at birth was a logistic fit based on two points: the estimate for 2023 and the value of the limit life table, allocated to 2100.
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
Where: printed p. 27 (PDF p. 29), "Projections: Level and pattern". Accessed October 13, 2026.“realizado separadamente por sexo e Unidade da Federação, com base em dois pontos: estimativa, para 2023, e o valor da tábua limite, alocado em 2100”
- Projeções da População: Brasil e Unidades da Federação – Revisão 2024, 3ª edição (Série Relatórios Metodológicos v. 40) · IBGE: Directorate of Surveys, Coordination of Population and Social Indicators Official statistics
10. The World Bank indicator SP.DYN.IMRT.IN has as its source the UN IGME, which uses statistical models to obtain a best-estimate trend line for each country.
- World Development Indicators – metadados de SP.DYN.IMRT.IN (Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)) · World Bank (source: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation) International organization
Where: field Statisticalconceptandmethodology. Accessed October 13, 2026.“The method uses statistical models to obtain a best estimate trend line by fitting a country-specific regression model of mortality rates against their reference dates.”
- World Development Indicators – metadados de SP.DYN.IMRT.IN (Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)) · World Bank (source: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation) International organization
Where: field Source. Accessed October 13, 2026.“UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), uri: www.childmortality.org;”
- World Development Indicators – metadados de SP.DYN.IMRT.IN (Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)) · World Bank (source: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation) International organization
11. According to the UN IGME series at the World Bank (SP.DYN.IMRT.IN), Brazil's infant mortality was 25.6 in 2002, 16 in 2010, 12.6 in 2022, and 12.3 in 2024, per thousand live births.
- World Development Indicators – SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, Brazil (lastupdated 2026-10-08) · World Bank; primary source UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN Population Division) Official statistics
Where: record date=2002. Accessed October 13, 2026.“"countryiso3code":"BRA","date":"2002","value":25.6”
- World Development Indicators – SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, Brazil (lastupdated 2026-10-08) · World Bank; primary source UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN Population Division) Official statistics
Where: record date=2010. Accessed October 13, 2026.“"countryiso3code":"BRA","date":"2010","value":16”
- World Development Indicators – SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, Brazil (lastupdated 2026-10-08) · World Bank; primary source UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN Population Division) Official statistics
Where: record date=2022. Accessed October 13, 2026.“"countryiso3code":"BRA","date":"2022","value":12.6”
- World Development Indicators – SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, Brazil (lastupdated 2026-10-08) · World Bank; primary source UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN Population Division) Official statistics
Where: record date=2024. Accessed October 13, 2026.“"countryiso3code":"BRA","date":"2024","value":12.3”
- World Development Indicators – SP.DYN.IMRT.IN, Brazil (lastupdated 2026-10-08) · World Bank; primary source UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN Population Division) Official statistics
12. According to the TabNet notes for the SIM and SINASC, final data are available through 2024; the 2025 data are preliminary.
- TabNet – Óbitos infantis - Brasil (SIM), Linha = Ano do Óbito, Incremento = Óbitos p/Residênc, anos 2000-2024 · Ministry of Health: MS/SVSA/CGIAE (DATASUS) Official statistics
Where: "Notes" footer of the generated table. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Dados finais disponíveis até 2024 - data de extração 02/12/2025. Dados de 2025 - Preliminares - data de extração 28/07/2026.”
- TabNet – Nascidos vivos - Brasil (SINASC), Linha = Ano do nascimento, Incremento = Nascim p/resid.mãe, anos 2000-2024 · Ministry of Health: MS/SVSA/CGIAE (DATASUS) Official statistics
Where: "Notes" footer of the generated table. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Dados finais disponíveis até 2024 - data de extração 02/12/2025. Dados de 2025 - Preliminares - data de extração 28/07/2026.”
- TabNet – Óbitos infantis - Brasil (SIM), Linha = Ano do Óbito, Incremento = Óbitos p/Residênc, anos 2000-2024 · Ministry of Health: MS/SVSA/CGIAE (DATASUS) Official statistics
13. In the IDB 2012 (RIPSA/MS), the infant mortality rate (deaths of children under 1 year per 1,000 live births) was estimated with SIM and SINASC data corrected by factors from the Active Search Survey.
- IDB 2012 – C.1 Taxa de mortalidade infantil, Brasil, 2000-2011 · Ministry of Health / RIPSA (DATASUS) Official statistics
Where: table, Brazil row, 2002 and 2010 columns (2002 = 23.4; 2010 = 16.0). Accessed October 13, 2026.“Número de óbitos infantis (menores de 1 ano) por 1.000 nascidos vivos”
- IDB 2012 – C.1 Taxa de mortalidade infantil, Brasil, 2000-2011 · Ministry of Health / RIPSA (DATASUS) Official statistics
Where: table notes. Accessed October 13, 2026.“Taxas estimadas com os dados informados ao SIM e ao SINASC corrigidos por fatores obtidos na Pesquisa de Busca Ativa realizada”
- IDB 2012 – C.1 Taxa de mortalidade infantil, Brasil, 2000-2011 · Ministry of Health / RIPSA (DATASUS) Official statistics